The crypto market is buzzing again, and investors around the world are asking the same question — is the next big crypto bull run finally here? After months of volatility and speculation, signs are emerging that 2025 could mark the start of a new, powerful rally across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. With the Federal Reserve hinting at the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and market sentiment shifting, optimism is slowly returning. But is this the real deal or just another false start? Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening behind the scenes and what could drive the crypto bull run 2025.
Quick Bio Information
1. Federal Reserve: The central bank of the United States that controls monetary policy and liquidity.
2. Jerome Powell: Current Chair of the Federal Reserve, whose policies influence global financial markets.
3. Quantitative Tightening (QT): The process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, decreasing liquidity.
4. Quantitative Easing (QE): A policy that expands the Fed’s balance sheet, increasing market liquidity.
5. Kev Capital TA: Crypto analyst known for linking Fed policies with crypto cycles.
6. Arthur Hayes: Co-founder of BitMEX and a macro analyst often discussing liquidity’s impact on crypto.
7. USDT Dominance: A measure of how much of the crypto market is held in the Tether stablecoin.
8. Bitcoin Halving: An event that cuts mining rewards in half every four years, reducing new BTC supply.
9. Altcoin Season: A phase when altcoins outperform Bitcoin in percentage gains.
10. Total Crypto Market Cap: The combined market value of all cryptocurrencies.
Understanding A Crypto Bull Run
A crypto bull run is a period when digital asset prices rise rapidly and consistently, driven by strong demand, investor confidence, and expanding liquidity. In simple terms, it’s when the entire crypto market — from Bitcoin to smaller altcoins — surges higher for months or even years. Previous bull runs, like those in 2017 and 2021, created massive wealth and brought mainstream attention to cryptocurrencies.
But what triggers these runs? They often begin when macroeconomic conditions improve, liquidity increases, and new narratives — such as DeFi, NFTs, or AI tokens — capture investor imagination. A bull market also feeds on momentum: as prices rise, more people jump in, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of growth. The question now is whether 2025 holds the same potential.
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The Federal Reserve And Its Role In The Market
To understand the crypto bull run 2025, we need to look at something far less exciting but incredibly influential — U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (or “the Fed”) has a direct impact on financial markets, including crypto, through its management of interest rates and liquidity.
In late 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank may be preparing to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) — a process that reduces liquidity by shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. QT has been one of the biggest headwinds for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. When the Fed tightens liquidity, money becomes scarce, and speculative assets tend to fall. When it stops tightening — or begins easing — liquidity flows back, and risk assets often rally.
Why Ending QT Could Be The Spark For Crypto
Crypto analyst Kevin from Kev Capital TA recently argued that Powell’s comments could mark a major turning point. According to his analysis, every major crypto rally in history has coincided with a neutral or expanding Fed balance sheet, meaning more money in the system. When QT begins, altcoins underperform; when it ends, altcoins surge.
Kevin’s point is simple but powerful: crypto thrives on liquidity. The more liquidity in the global system, the easier it is for investors to take risk. If Powell’s remarks truly signal the end of QT in 2025, it could unleash a wave of new capital into digital assets. Other experts, including Arthur Hayes and Walter Bloomberg, share similar views, noting that the macro environment may finally be turning in crypto’s favor.
Bitcoin’s Technical Setup In 2025
While macro trends matter, technical analysis also plays a crucial role in identifying where the market is headed. Bitcoin remains the anchor of the entire ecosystem, and its behavior often dictates what happens next. Analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 2-day 200 EMA — both long-term indicators of trend strength.
Kevin’s charts suggest that as long as Bitcoin stays above the $96,000 to $102,000 range, the cycle remains intact. If it breaks below this range on multiple weekly closes, it could indicate a cycle top or a prolonged consolidation phase. As of mid-October 2025, Bitcoin continues to hold above these levels, fueling optimism that the bull cycle might not be over yet.
Altcoins And The Liquidity Cycle
Beyond Bitcoin, the real excitement in any bull market lies with altcoins. These smaller cryptocurrencies — from Ethereum and Solana to emerging projects in AI, DeFi, and gaming — often deliver outsized returns when the market turns bullish. Historically, altcoin rallies begin only after Bitcoin stabilizes and liquidity increases.
Kevin’s data suggests a one-to-one correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and altcoin performance. When liquidity expands, altcoins outperform Bitcoin. When liquidity contracts, they crash. If the Fed truly winds down QT, it could open the door to another explosive “altcoin season,” where capital rotates from BTC into riskier assets. However, timing is everything — altcoin rallies often lag Bitcoin’s move by several months.
USDT Dominance: A Silent Market Signal
One of the most overlooked yet powerful indicators in crypto is USDT dominance — the percentage of total crypto market capitalization held in Tether (USDT). When USDT dominance rises, it means traders are holding stablecoins instead of investing in coins, signaling fear or caution. When it falls, it indicates that investors are moving money into the market.
Kevin describes the current USDT dominance chart as forming a descending triangle, with a flat base around 3.9%–3.7%. Historically, a breakdown from this pattern often precedes a strong crypto rally. If USDT dominance breaks lower, it would mean money is flowing out of stablecoins and into risk assets — a major bullish confirmation.
The Four-Year Cycle Debate
Crypto enthusiasts love the four-year Bitcoin cycle, which revolves around the halving — the event that cuts Bitcoin’s mining rewards in half roughly every four years. Traditionally, halvings have triggered supply shocks and massive bull runs within the following year. By that logic, since the last halving occurred in 2024, 2025 should be the peak of the current cycle.
However, not everyone agrees that this historical pattern will repeat perfectly. Kevin and other macro-focused analysts argue that the global liquidity environment may override the halving effect. With inflation under better control and no immediate economic crisis, 2025 might not mark an ending but an extension of the bull cycle. This could push the crypto market into a longer, more sustained rally than previous cycles.
Market Risks And Investor Caution
Even amid optimism, the crypto market remains unpredictable. Kevin warns that several charts — including Bitcoin, Total2, and Total3 — show bearish divergences on the weekly timeframe, meaning momentum is slowing despite rising prices. Historically, such divergences can precede corrections.
Global risks also persist: renewed US–China trade tensions, fluctuating energy prices, and potential regulatory changes could all disrupt sentiment. For long-term investors, the message is clear — stay informed, manage risk carefully, and avoid FOMO (fear of missing out). The biggest gains often come to those who wait for strong confirmations rather than chasing early hype.
What To Watch Next
The coming months will be crucial for determining whether the crypto bull run 2025 takes off. Several indicators will provide clarity. If the Fed officially pauses QT, Bitcoin maintains its support above $98,000, and USDT dominance continues to fall, it would strongly suggest that the next phase of the bull market is beginning. Total crypto market capitalization, which currently sits around $3.8 trillion, could climb past $4 trillion if momentum continues.
Investors should also keep an eye on Ethereum upgrades, stablecoin regulations, and ETF inflows, which could serve as additional catalysts. In short, macro and technical signals are finally aligning — but the final confirmation is still ahead.
Conclusion
The possibility of a crypto bull run in 2025 is becoming harder to ignore. With the Federal Reserve likely ending QT, liquidity could once again flood into the markets, reigniting interest across Bitcoin and altcoins. Yet, the path ahead won’t be straightforward — markets may still face corrections, volatility, and macro uncertainty. What’s different this time is that crypto is more mature, more integrated with global finance, and better understood by institutional investors.
If history and liquidity trends align, 2025 could be remembered as the year crypto reclaims its bullish momentum and enters a new growth era. Whether you’re a long-term believer or a cautious observer, one thing is clear: the next chapter of the crypto story is already being written.
FAQs About Crypto Bull Run 2025
What Is Driving The Crypto Bull Run 2025?
The potential end of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening program is a key factor. More liquidity in the system tends to benefit risk assets like crypto. Improved global sentiment and institutional adoption are also contributing factors.
Is The Fed Really Ending Quantitative Tightening?
While not yet official, Jerome Powell’s recent statements suggest that the Fed may wind down QT in the coming months. This could significantly influence crypto markets in 2025.
When Will The Next Altcoin Season Start?
Altcoin rallies typically follow Bitcoin’s consolidation phase. Once BTC stabilizes and liquidity expands, altcoins usually begin to outperform, signaling the start of “altcoin season.”
How High Can Bitcoin Go In 2025?
Predictions vary, but if liquidity continues improving and institutional inflows rise, Bitcoin could test new all-time highs above $120,000. However, market corrections are likely along the way.
What Role Does USDT Dominance Play In The Market?
USDT dominance reflects market sentiment. A drop in dominance means investors are moving funds into crypto assets, which usually supports upward price action.
Are We Still Following The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle?
Not strictly. While the halving still affects supply, macro factors like Fed policy and liquidity conditions now play an equally important role in shaping market cycles.
Should Investors Buy Crypto Now Or Wait?
Caution is advised. Analysts recommend waiting for key confirmations — such as the Fed’s policy shift and technical breakouts — before making large investments.
